My Son Doesn't Think I Should Drive Anymore
When we first bought our Tesla Model Y, it could only handle highway driving on its own and required driver confirmations when making lane changes. Over the last three years, it's improved dramatically, and now it can navigate highways easily and most city streets smoothly.
Since early 2023, I've been comfortable enough to use it in city traffic even when my son is with me. In fact, he now requests I let the car drive itself whenever it's just the two of us. (It's not clear if he's really impressed with the car or just prefers it to my driving.)
Despite these advancements, I’m still required to monitor the car at all times. But for how much longer will that be necessary?
This weekend, my cousins visited, and I made two airport runs. Picking up family has become more exciting lately, as I get to demonstrate Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) capabilities on the way home. If my passengers seem nervous, I'll turn it off, but this time they were all for it. One of my cousins had even recently ridden in a fully driverless Waymo in Arizona.
So when will we see driverless cars everywhere? My estimate? By 2030, I think we’ll be able to buy cars capable of driving themselves in most situations without any driver attention (Level 4 autonomy). By 2035, we might see cars without steering wheels at all (Level 5 autonomy).
My son will turn 16 in 2036, and it makes me wonder—will he ever learn how to drive? At that point, cars might be capable of handling everything. A 16-year-old might already be a worse driver than our current self-driving technology. If he can take the family car to his friend's house without ever touching the wheel, why bother getting a license?
The percentage of 18-year-olds with a driver’s license has already dropped from 80% in 1980 to 60% in 2021. A few kids will still want to learn how to drive in 2035, but it might feel as outdated as writing a check when you could use Venmo.
Last week, Tesla held its “We Robot” event and unveiled two car prototypes with no steering wheels. Elon Musk claimed they’ll be ready for production by 2026, though he’s known to be optimistic about timelines. From his comments, it sounds like Tesla will start a Waymo-style self-driving program in specific cities first.
As for my 2021 Model Y, I think it’ll reach Level 3 autonomy on highways—where I wouldn’t need to actively pay attention—and possibly some city streets. But I don’t expect I’ll ever be sitting in the passenger seat while it drives itself. Jim Farley, Ford’s CEO, says they plan to reach Level 3 on certain highways with BlueCruise by 2026.
These are all estimates, and it’s possible the rate of progress slows. I just hope we have self-driving RVs before I retire.
Self driving RVs would have definitely changed my van life calculations :)